I had family in town this past weekend to see AverageNewBaby for the very first time. As inevitably occurs when two or more black folks congregate, the subject of Obama came up. Everyone's jazzed for Tuesday night of course, and most of my relatives from Norf Cack have already voted.
That said, eventually the convo rolled around to something few of us have really wanted to consider: What if Obama loses?
Everything looks promising for a win right now. Obama is leading in every poll that matters, and recent elections (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan) have shown that the guy leading polls on the eve of big Tuesday typically pulls it out. Yes, even Bush lead Gore in 2000. Even though the GOP is throwing the kitchen sink (Hillary Clinton robocalls, dredging up Obama's half-aunt, a Jay-Z diss track which drops on urban radio today) at Barry, it seems to me that the only way he can lose is if the turnout is less than expected among those groups (college kids and blacks) whose registration numbers have exploded this year.
I don't buy that Bradly Effect crap either. Sorry, I just don't. Tom Bradley got haughty and started running a victory lap two weeks before the race was over. The California GOP also mounted a then-unforeseen run up on absentee ballots, and managed to paint Bradley as an LA insider (which doesn't play well in the rest of the state) at the 11th hour. His lead was only 7 points, but that well-referenced poll was taken a week before the election. Polls the day of/before showed him with a mere 2 point lead. When all the absentee ballots were finally tabulated, Tom Bradley took an L.
Besides, there has been no such example of The Bradley Effect this year. Obama has generally won where he polled well. Let's toss New Hampshire out please. We all remember Hillary Clinton's Crying Game in the days before that election. I'd wager that this tugging of the emotional heartstrings had far more to do with Obama's loss. None of the subsequent contests were too far off the final polling.
When I add all this up, it's hard to see how he loses. Tuesday's weather will be seasonally mild throughout the Northeast and South. Obama has the polls on lock. Eff' a Bradley Factor. Negro Luck doesn't seem likely to kick in. Dude should have it in the bag.
But what if he somehow loses?
Honestly, I don't know how I'll feel. Unlike any election or candidate before, I am financially and emotionally invested in Obama's bid. I've given money, time, and yes, blog entries to educate others on the issues and encourage them to consider him.
AverageAunt basically says she doesn't even give the possibility of a loss any energy. It would probably, at least momentarily, be devastating. I doubt anyone would be stoopid enough to riot. I'm sorry, but Black folks love many things that are worth fighting for. Politricks, in 2008 at least, ain't one of em'.
Folks would be really pissed Wednesday morning, and there might be a lot of people calling in sick to work (well, win or lose that will prolly happen) that day, but we'll get over it eventually. It's not like black people haven't been disappointed with America before. We're sorta kinda used to it but now. We'll be alright. It's the white folks who as a whole have prolly invested even more in the campaign than blacks that I'm worried about. America has never seen suburban looting, but they might wanna get ready.
I can already see the carnage in Bed Bath and Beyonds and Pottery Barns across the country. People running out the strip mall with arms full of throw rugs and duvet covers screamin' "Kill White-Tee!".
That said, eventually the convo rolled around to something few of us have really wanted to consider: What if Obama loses?
Everything looks promising for a win right now. Obama is leading in every poll that matters, and recent elections (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan) have shown that the guy leading polls on the eve of big Tuesday typically pulls it out. Yes, even Bush lead Gore in 2000. Even though the GOP is throwing the kitchen sink (Hillary Clinton robocalls, dredging up Obama's half-aunt, a Jay-Z diss track which drops on urban radio today) at Barry, it seems to me that the only way he can lose is if the turnout is less than expected among those groups (college kids and blacks) whose registration numbers have exploded this year.
I don't buy that Bradly Effect crap either. Sorry, I just don't. Tom Bradley got haughty and started running a victory lap two weeks before the race was over. The California GOP also mounted a then-unforeseen run up on absentee ballots, and managed to paint Bradley as an LA insider (which doesn't play well in the rest of the state) at the 11th hour. His lead was only 7 points, but that well-referenced poll was taken a week before the election. Polls the day of/before showed him with a mere 2 point lead. When all the absentee ballots were finally tabulated, Tom Bradley took an L.
Besides, there has been no such example of The Bradley Effect this year. Obama has generally won where he polled well. Let's toss New Hampshire out please. We all remember Hillary Clinton's Crying Game in the days before that election. I'd wager that this tugging of the emotional heartstrings had far more to do with Obama's loss. None of the subsequent contests were too far off the final polling.
When I add all this up, it's hard to see how he loses. Tuesday's weather will be seasonally mild throughout the Northeast and South. Obama has the polls on lock. Eff' a Bradley Factor. Negro Luck doesn't seem likely to kick in. Dude should have it in the bag.
But what if he somehow loses?
Honestly, I don't know how I'll feel. Unlike any election or candidate before, I am financially and emotionally invested in Obama's bid. I've given money, time, and yes, blog entries to educate others on the issues and encourage them to consider him.
AverageAunt basically says she doesn't even give the possibility of a loss any energy. It would probably, at least momentarily, be devastating. I doubt anyone would be stoopid enough to riot. I'm sorry, but Black folks love many things that are worth fighting for. Politricks, in 2008 at least, ain't one of em'.
Folks would be really pissed Wednesday morning, and there might be a lot of people calling in sick to work (well, win or lose that will prolly happen) that day, but we'll get over it eventually. It's not like black people haven't been disappointed with America before. We're sorta kinda used to it but now. We'll be alright. It's the white folks who as a whole have prolly invested even more in the campaign than blacks that I'm worried about. America has never seen suburban looting, but they might wanna get ready.
I can already see the carnage in Bed Bath and Beyonds and Pottery Barns across the country. People running out the strip mall with arms full of throw rugs and duvet covers screamin' "Kill White-Tee!".
Anyways, that's just my opinion of course. What do ya'll think? If your boy loses, are we gonna wile' out, move to Ontario, or just take it all in stride?
Question: Is there any way Obama could lose on Tuesday? How will you feel if he does? Likewise, for my handful of McCain supporters, how would you like your Crow seasoned? BBQ, Jerk, or Tandoori?
