--- Politrickal Predictions ---
My Prediction - "President Obama will find Year 3 of his Presidency the easiest thus far. The bipartisan wins of the lame duck session will miraculously roll over in the the new year, as the President and GOP-controlled Congress will come together to tackle issues of tax code reform, deficit reduction, and the economy at large. Obama will finally figure out how to take credit for what he does, and a White House shakeup in early 2011 will result in better messaging as a whole. His approval ratings will resurface to the mid 50's, setting the table for 2012."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Well, this year was his easiest, by far, mostly because he didn't do sh*t. This wasn't entirely his fault, since he was fighting a stubborn Congress with the approval rating lower than Porn, Polygamy, BP Oil Spill, the 'U.S. Going Communist'. On the plus side, he handled several crises with aplomb, figured out how to frame/critique his opposition (see: Trump, Donald), and finally got rid of that smug buffoon Robert Gibbs. His approval rating is roughly 50% right now, so I'll give myself credit on a sliding scale for that one.
Net Result - 33% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The economy will finally rebound. With new job numbers improving month by month, the Obama administration will be able to claim they solved the unemployment issue. By year's end, unemployment will drop to an even 9.0%, which won't be earth shattering, but will be a good enough trend for the Administration to prove things are on the right track."
See, What Had Happened Was... - The economy, despite some backwards jobs numbers mid-year, is definitely on the uptick. The unemployment rate, thanks to some dubious math, is at 8.6% right now, which is lower than anyone (including Obama) probably expected. First time jobless claims are way down. Housing numbers are up. The Dow was mostly flat for the year, which counts as a win. Gas prices are down slightly. Things could obviously fall apart this year, but I could very easily see 200k new jobs a month on average in 2012, which would spell low 8%'s in unemployment. Which spells reelection.
Net Result - 85% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The Dow will briefly eclipse the 14,000 mark during the course of the year, then level back off.
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See, What Had Happened Was... - The Dow hit the mid 12's, fell waaaay down, and rebounded to the low 12's, finishing the year up 5.5%. Not terrible, not great, and certainly not what I predicted
Net Result - 0% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The GOP will find itself continually at-odds within their newly controlled Congress. While party leadership will be more apt to work with the President, the Tea Partiers will be eager to make a name for themselves and will prove to be a thorn in the side of progress. In an odd turn of events, the Tea Party and Congressional Black Caucus will find themselves on the same side when the President and GOP leadership strike a deal that neither group agrees with."
See, What Had Happened Was... - The CBC and Tea Party both (briefly) opposed the debt ceiling agreement, albeit for radically different reasons. Could someone just hand me my Crystal Ball Legacy Award now?
Net Result - 150% Accurate
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My Prediction - "By year's end, Tea Party newbies will find themselves unable to get anything of substance done and will simply fall in line with GOP leadership on some very controversial votes, which will set the tone for a difficult 2012 re-election campaign for many TP candidates."
See, What Had Happened Was... - This is mostly true. Congress was in a stalemate the entire year, mostly because Tea Partiers wouldn't fall in lock step with Speaker Boehner. On the flipside, there's no substantive proof that they'll be held accountable by their constituents. Which is sorta strange, because these folks were sent to DC to help slash the deficit, and proved to be the biggest obstacles to a substantive deficit reduction plan. And yeah, the deficit will indeed increase in 2012. Someone please explain to me why Tea Party constituents aren't running up to the Capitol with pitchforks right now?!?
Net Result - 33% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The usual GOP suspects will declare their 2012 intentions by March. Sarah Palin, however, will string the party along for months until announcing that she won't run sometime in the Summer. Tea Partiers and bloggers alike will fall into a deep depression. Imagine all of the lost post fodder."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Call 1-888-AB-PREDICTS for my free psychic reading. Operators are standing by. Call me now!!! Thankfully, we did have Herman Cain to make up for some of the lost Palin fodder.
Net Result - 3,500% Accurate
--- Pop Culture Predictions ---
My Prediction - "Tyler Perry will finally make a movie (of his own) that's actually good enough to get bourgeois Negroes like myself off his back. Yes, the movie (which won't include Madea) will actually be that decent.."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Dead wrong. With the exception of the hideous Madea's Big Happy Family, Perry was notably quiet this year on-screen. But hey, the Kim Kardashian-lead The Marriage Counselor is coming this year. I smell Oscar. And by "Oscar", I mean, Oscar The Grouch.
Net Result - 0% Accurate
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My Prediction - "J. Cole will finally blow up, as his debut album sells close to 200,000 copies the first week."
See, What Had Happened Was... - While Cole World was an epic disappointment of LA Clippers-sian proportions, Cole did indeed get close to the 200k mark his first week and the album's since gone gold. You also can't turn on he radio without hearing "Can't Get Enough" or "Workout", which I don't necessarily consider a good thing. Not convinced this guy has "superstar" in him, but he did move units, which counts for something in today's rap game. Well done, Jermaine. But I'mma need a much better sophomore effort.
Net Result - 95% Accurate
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My Prediction - "A new white rapper will become the biggest thing in the rap game at some point in the year."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Mac Miller's Blue Slide Park made history of sorts, even though it wasn't all that great. YelaWolf had Eminem's co-sign, but his album bricked hard. I'm gonna pretty much assume Machine Gun Kelly catches a brick this year. None of these guys will ever become a superstar. Most of you reading this post probably don't know a single one of them. So, not quite accurate.
Net Result - 25% Accurate
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My Prediction - "A high profile rap groupie will get her own reality show on VH1."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Personally, I'm sorta lazy at this point, and don't even know if this actually happened, nor do I have the energy to consult The Google. Does
#HoesBeWinnin
Net Result - 50% Accurate
--- Sports Predictions ---
My Prediction - "The LA Lakers will lose in an early round matchup. The Miami Heat will implode in the Eastern Conference Finals vs the Boston Celtics, effectively blowing the homecourt advantage they worked all season to get. The San Antonio Spurs will in the NBA championship."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Mixed bag here. I got the implosions correct, but the order of implosion wrong. The Lakers (and Spurs) bowed out early. Miami waited until the NBA Finals for Lebron James to suddenly morph into James Jones. Props to the Mavs. Enjoy that title, it'll be awhile.
Net Result - 25% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The Chicago Bears will win the Super Bowl. Yeah, really."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Uh, no, not really
Net Result - 0% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The UConn Huskies will win both the men's and women's' NCAA basketball titles."
See, What Had Happened Was... - You gotta give me props here. Who coulda predicted Kemba Walker's incredible run, which culminated in the absolute worst championship game evar? The Lady Huskies made the Final Four, but sadly lost. Rats.
Net Result - 50% Accurate
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My Prediction - "The Pittsburgh Penguins will win the Stanley Cup (again).."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Unless the Penguins magically relocated to Boston, I missed this one like a Graham Gano field goal attempt.
Net Result - 0% Accurate
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My Prediction - "Blake Griffin will win the NBA's Rookie Of The Year award."
See, What Had Happened Was... - This wasn't exactly a reach at the time, but I still don't think Griffin deserved to win this, on a strictly technical basis. He missed his rookie year, but did have a whole season to absorb the NBA life, travel, see opponents up close, and practice with the team. Not exactly a "rookie", so John Wall should have won this. But anyways...
Net Result - 100% Accurate, but with a serious asterisk
Overall Verdict On AB's 2011 Predictions: %45 Accurate
Question: Am I pretty good at this predictions stuff or what?
